From: Yale Daily News, Nov. 14, 2008
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By Stephannie Furtak

If new research by Yale scientists is any indication, it may already
be too late for the environment.

An international team of 10 researchers — including Yale professors
of geology and geophysics Mark Pagani and Robert Berner — determined
that current levels of carbon dioxide have already surpassed the
estimated cutoff level that would cause damage to the planet. The
study also found that this threshold level is actually much lower
than previously estimated. Still, one Yale climate
expert said it would be impossible to implement policies to reach the
goal the study sets out.

Past research on greenhouse gases indicated that 450 parts per million
of atmospheric CO2 would be the “tipping point” beyond which the
effects of global warming would begin to rapidly escalate. But the
study, which was headed by James Hansen, a professor of Earth and
Environmental Studies at Columbia University and NASA’s lead climate
scientist, revised this theory, showing that this threshold level is
closer to 350 ppm. The level of CO2 found in the atmosphere — 385 ppm
— is already higher than this, and is increasing annually by two ppm.

“It appears as if we have reached CO2 levels not seen for the past
several million years,” Pagani said in an e-mail to the News.

The study concluded that avoiding climate disasters depends on
reducing our reliance on fossil fuel.

“The point of identifying dangerous levels is to focus the attention
of policy makers that decide our fate,” Pagani said, “and give them
estimates that they can use to develop national policy and
international agreements.”

In their paper, the researchers noted that if left unchecked, current
consumption of fossil fuels will eventually result in levels of
atmospheric CO2 that are double those of pre-industrial civilization,
leading, down the road, to “a nearly ice-free planet.”

“We cannot yet predict the precise CO2 levels that will force the
climate state to radically shift,” Pagani said. “We don’t understand
how fast this change might come, but we know Earth’s climate system
has the capacity to change rapidly.”

An escalation in climate changes that are already occurring —
including heavy rainfall and floods, more intense dry periods and
fires, and shifting of climatic zones — will eventually bring about
irreversible changes, such as extermination of species and sea level
rise as a result of ice sheet disintegration, Hansen said.

President-elect Barack Obama’s transition team has said it plans to
implement an economic cap-and-trade plan that would reduce emissions
of greenhouse gases and invest into renewable energy sources.

According to the study, coal burning is the greatest source of
atmospheric carbon dioxide and its use needs to be phased out
altogether. Twenty-five percent of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels
linger in the air for several centuries, Pagani noted.

The authors cited several recommendations for reducing CO2 levels,
including improving agricultural practices and reforestation. Geo-
engineering methods, such as artificial removal of CO2 from the
atmosphere, were discounted as too expensive.

“Coal supply is finite, so we must move to other fuels eventually,”
Hansen said. “Why not do it sooner, rather than later?”

Hansen said that re-attaining climatic conditions similar to those of
the pre-industrial period can only be achieved if the carbon contained
in our remaining fossil fuel reserves is never emitted into the

But Arnulf Grubler, professor of energy and technology at the Yale
School of Forestry and Environmental Sciences, said that the study
does not make any practical suggestions for achieving such a low level
of atmospheric CO2 in such a short period of time.

“If we want to take that seriously, we have to stop emitting CO2
immediately,” Grubler said in reference to the study’s new CO2
threshold. “We have to shut off the entire world’s energy system, and
even then we’re not reaching that target!”

Grubler also said that the study did not take into account the other
factors that must be addressed before any plan for reducing CO2 levels
can be implemented. The study also betrayed a lack of awareness about
policy making, Grubler added.

“There are international legal structures,” he said. “From an
economic, an engineering perspective, it’s infeasible.”

The study was published in the 2008 edition of the Open Atmospheric
Science Journal [2.5 Mbytes PDF].

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  1. paulbyron says:

    This follows almost verbatim, the presentations given by NOAA and the USEPA at an estuary restoration conference I attended in Providence R.I in October, 2008. Proceedings upon request.
    Paul Byron Crane, ASLA, BLA, MA
    Landscape Architect

  2. Ralph says:

    Thoughtful stuff Pierre; this piece in the Guardian is also worth a read (at http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/dec/09/poznan-copenhagen-global-warming-targets-climate-change), warning that trying to lock in at 450ppm ‘could end up providing another reason for not reaching an international agreement to reduce emissions. In the meantime, the cost of excessive focus on an unlikely goal could consign to history any opportunity to lock in an agreement for stabilising at 550ppm’; adding a new climate treaty was unlikely to include a stabilisation goal – either 450ppm or 550ppm.

    “You’ve got to avoid talking and thinking in those terms because otherwise the politics reaches a dead end”. With many small island states predicted to be swamped by rising seas with global warming triggered by carbon levels as low as 400ppm, “It’s really difficult for countries to sign up to something that loses them half their territory. It’s not going to work.”

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