{"id":9681,"date":"2013-01-14T10:28:36","date_gmt":"2013-01-14T14:28:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pierrejoris.com\/blog\/?p=9681"},"modified":"2013-01-14T10:28:36","modified_gmt":"2013-01-14T14:28:36","slug":"global-warming-heat-records-x-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pierrejoris.com\/blog\/global-warming-heat-records-x-5\/","title":{"rendered":"Global Warming Heat Records X 5"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"s-CLIMATE-CHANGE-REPORT-large300\"<\/a>Press release by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research<\/em><\/p>\n

01\/14\/2013<\/p>\n

Global warming has increased monthly heat records by a factor of five<\/h3>\n

Monthly temperature extremes have become much more frequent, as measurements from around the world indicate. On average, there are now five times as many record-breaking hot months worldwide than could be expected without long-term global warming, shows a study now published in Climatic Change. In parts of Europe, Africa and southern Asia the number of monthly records has increased even by a factor of ten. 80 percent of observed monthly records would not have occurred without human influence on climate, concludes the authors-team of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Complutense University of Madrid.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe last decade brought unprecedented heat waves; for instance in the US in 2012, in Russia in 2010, in Australia in 2009, and in Europe in 2003,\u201d lead-author Dim Coumou says. \u201cHeat extremes are causing many deaths, major forest fires, and harvest losses \u2013 societies and ecosystems are not adapted to ever new record-breaking temperatures.\u201d The new study relies on 131 years of monthly temperature data for more than 12.000 grid points around the world, provided by NASA. Comprehensive analysis reveals the increase in records.<\/p>\n

The researchers developed a robust statistical model that explains the surge in the number of records to be a consequence of the long-term global warming trend. That surge has been particularly steep over the last 40 years, due to a steep global-warming trend over this period. Superimposed on this long-term rise, the data show the effect of natural variability, with especially high numbers of heat records during years with El Ni\u00f1o events. This natural variability, however, does not explain the overall development of record events, found the researchers.<\/p>\n

Natural variability does not explain the overall development of record event<\/em><\/p>\n

If global warming continues, the study projects that the number of new monthly records will be 12 times as high in 30 years as it would be without climate change. \u201cNow this doesn\u2019t mean there will be 12 times more hot summers in Europe than today \u2013 it actually is worse,\u201c Coumou points out. For the new records set in the 2040s will not just be hot by today\u2019s standards. \u201cTo count as new records, they actually have to beat heat records set in the 2020s and 2030s, which will already be hotter than anything we have experienced to date,\u201d explains Coumou. \u201cAnd this is just the global average \u2013 in some continental regions, the increase in new records will be even greater.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cStatistics alone cannot tell us what the cause of any single heat wave is, but they show a large and systematic increase in the number of heat records due to global warming,\u201d says Stefan Rahmstorf, a co-author of the study and co-chair of PIK\u2019s research domain Earth System Analysis. \u201cToday this increase is already so large that by far most monthly heat records are due to climate change. The science is clear that only a small fraction would have occurred naturally.\u201d<\/p>\n

Article: Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Rahmstorf, S. (2013): Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures . Climatic Change (online) [doi:10.1007\/s10584-012-0668-1]<\/p>\n

Weblink to the article: http:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10584-012-0668-1<\/p>\n

For further information please contact:
\n<\/b>PIK press office
\nPhone: +49 331 288 25 07
\nE-Mail: press@pik-potsdam.de<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Press release by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 01\/14\/2013 Global warming has increased monthly heat records by a factor of five Monthly temperature extremes have become much more frequent, as measurements from...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,41],"tags":[620],"class_list":["post-9681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-climate-change","category-environment","tag-potsdam-institute-for-climate-impact-research"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pierrejoris.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9681","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pierrejoris.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pierrejoris.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pierrejoris.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pierrejoris.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9681"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/pierrejoris.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9681\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9686,"href":"https:\/\/pierrejoris.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9681\/revisions\/9686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pierrejoris.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9681"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pierrejoris.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9681"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pierrejoris.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9681"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}