{"id":15734,"date":"2018-01-23T15:26:40","date_gmt":"2018-01-23T19:26:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pierrejoris.com\/blog\/?p=15734"},"modified":"2018-01-23T15:26:40","modified_gmt":"2018-01-23T19:26:40","slug":"river-flood-risks-increase-around-the-globe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pierrejoris.com\/blog\/river-flood-risks-increase-around-the-globe\/","title":{"rendered":"River flood risks increase around the globe"},"content":{"rendered":"
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In this aerial photo, flood water covers Interstate 44, Wednesday, Dec 30, 2015, in Valley Park, Mo. \u00a0(AP Photo\/Jeff Roberson) ORG XMIT: CER202<\/p><\/div>\n

Press release by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research<\/i><\/p>\n

11\/01\/2018 (embargo expired)<\/p>\n

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Adaptation now:
\nRiver flood risks increase around the globe under future warming <\/big><\/b><\/big>Rainfall changes caused by global warming will increase river flood risks across the globe. Already today, fluvial floods are among the most common and devastating natural disasters. Scientists have now calculated the required increase in flood protection until the 2040s worldwide, breaking it down to single regions and cities. They find that the need for adaptation is greatest in the US, parts of India and Africa, Indonesia, and in Central Europe including Germany. Inaction would expose many millions of people to severe flooding.\u201cMore than half of the United States must at least double their protection level within the next two decades if they want to avoid a dramatic increase in river flood risks,\u201d says lead-author Sven Willner from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Without additional adaptation measures – such as enhancing dykes, improved river management, increasing building standards, or relocating settlements \u2013 the number of people affected by the worst 10 percent of all river flooding events will increase in many places: In Northern America from 0.1 to 1 million \u2013 while this seems not like a large number, it is a tenfold increase. In Germany it could rise sevenfold, from 0.1 to 0.7 million.Absolute values are even bigger elsewhere: in South America the number of people affected by flooding risks will likely increase from 6 to 12 million, in Africa from 25 to 34 million, and in Asia from 70 to 156 million. The real numbers might be even higher in the future as population growth and further urbanisation is not taken into account.
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\n<\/b>\u201cEven in developed countries with good infrastructure the need for adaptation is big\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

The study is based on comprehensive computer simulations using existing data on rivers from a great number of sources. \u201cWhile this data is not perfect for each and every river in the remotest corners of our planet, it certainly is sufficient for places where a lot of people live, a lot of financial values are accumulated, and where flood risks are substantial \u2013 we know enough about the places that matter,\u201d explains Willner. Data on changes in rainfall, evaporation and the like are from the worldwide largest modelling intercomparison project of climate impacts (ISIMIP), coordinated by Katja Frieler at PIK. The spatial detail of the new study is roughly ten times more precise than in commonly used climate computer simulations.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have been surprised to find that even in developed countries with good infrastructure the need for adaptation is big,\u201d says co-author Anders Levermann, head of global adaptation research at PIK and a researcher at Columbia University\u2019s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory <\/span>in New York. \u201cOur yardstick is that people want to keep the protection level they have today \u2013 they don\u2019t want things to become worse. Consequently, in countries with a fairly good level of protection, much has to be done to keep the same level of protection and prevent that people indeed have to leave their homes due to flooding.\u201d<\/p>\n

If we do not limit climate change, risks will surpass our abilities to adapt<\/b><\/p>\n

An increase in river flood risks over the next 2-3 decades will be driven by the amount of greenhouse-gases already emitted into the atmosphere, hence it does not depend on whether or not we limit global warming. \u201cHowever, it is clear that without limiting human-caused warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, river flood risks in our century will increase in many regions to a level that we cannot adapt to,\u201d says Levermann. \u201cTo keep people safe climate-change-induced risks must be taken seriously and money must be spent for adaptation. If we act now, we can protect against the risks of the next two decades. But further climate change must be limited by cutting greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels to avoid risks that surpass our abilities to adapt.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe findings should be a warning to decision-makers,\u201d adds Levermann. \u201cIf they choose to ignore the issue, sadly enough disaster will come. The time has come where mitigating future climate change must be accompanied by adapting to the climate change that we already caused. Doing nothing will be dangerous.\u201d<\/p>\n

Article:<\/b> Sven N. Willner, Anders Levermann, Fang Zhao, Katja Frieler (2018): Adaptation required to preserve future high-end river flood risk at present levels. Science A<\/i>dvances<\/i>[DOI:<\/span>10.1126\/sciadv.aao1914]<\/span><\/p>\n

Weblink to the article: <\/b>https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/sciadv.aao1914<\/a><\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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