{"id":12737,"date":"2015-01-16T09:45:02","date_gmt":"2015-01-16T13:45:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pierrejoris.com\/blog\/?p=12737"},"modified":"2015-01-16T09:45:02","modified_gmt":"2015-01-16T13:45:02","slug":"four-of-nine-planetary-boundaries-now-crossed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pierrejoris.com\/blog\/four-of-nine-planetary-boundaries-now-crossed\/","title":{"rendered":"Four of nine planetary boundaries now crossed"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"PB_FIG33_upgraded_mediaBLANK_11jan2015\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Press Release by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em>01\/16\/2015<\/p>\n

Four of nine planetary boundaries have now been crossed as a result of human activity, says an international team of 18 researchers in the journal <\/strong>Science<\/em>. The four are: climate change, loss of biosphere integrity, land-system change, altered biogeochemical cycles. The scientists say that two of these, climate change and biosphere integrity, are \u201ccore boundaries\u201d \u2013 significantly altering either of these would \u201cdrive the Earth System into a new state\u201d. The team will present their findings in seven seminars at the World Economic Forum in Davos (21-25 January).\u00a0 \u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n

The concept of planetary boundaries, developed by a global community of scholars with participation of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and first published in 2009, identifies nine global priorities relating to human-induced changes to the environment. The science shows that these nine processes and systems regulate the stability and resilience of the Earth System \u2013 the interactions of land, ocean, atmosphere and life that together provide conditions upon which our societies depend. The new research confirms the original set of boundaries and provides updated analysis and quantification for several of them (see table at end). To achieve some of these quantifications, a PIK computer model (LPJmL) simulating human impacts on Earth\u2019s water resources and ecosystems was key.<\/p>\n

\u201cTransgressing a boundary increases the risk that human activities could inadvertently drive the Earth System into a much less hospitable state, damaging efforts to reduce poverty and leading to a deterioration of human wellbeing in many parts of the world, including wealthy countries,\u201d said lead author Will Steffen from the Stockholm Resilience Centre, Professor at the Stockholm University and the Australian National University, Canberra. \u201cIn this new analysis we have improved our quantification of where these risks lie.\u201d<\/p>\n

On the regional scale, even more boundaries are crossed<\/strong><\/p>\n

Even some boundaries that have not yet been crossed at the planetary scale were found to exceed regional tolerance limits, such as freshwater use in the western US and in parts of southern Europe, Asia and the Middle East. \u201cThe challenges for society to stay within several planetary boundaries require balanced policies,\u201d said co-author Dieter Gerten of PIK. The boundaries are closely interlinked, and preventive measures relating to one of them can have negative repercussions on another one. \u201cFor example, if irrigation was reduced to stay below the boundary for freshwater use, cropland may have to be expanded as a compensation measure, leading to further transgression of the boundary for land-system change,\u201d Gerten explained. \u201cImplementing methods to use water more efficiently in agriculture can help sort out this dilemma and at the same time increase global food production.\u201d<\/p>\n

Regarding climate change, the team argue that carbon dioxide levels should not cross 350 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere. The current level is about 399 ppm (December 2014), growing by about 3 ppm per year. \u201cThis boundary is consistent with a stabilisation of global temperatures at about 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels,\u201d said co-author Professor Johan Rockstr\u00f6m, director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, who will present the new findings at the World Economic Forum. In December, nations will meet in Paris to negotiate an international emissions agreement to attempt to stabilise temperatures at 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels. \u201cOur analysis suggests that, even if successful, reaching this target contains significant risks for societies everywhere,\u201d said Rockstr\u00f6m. \u201cTwo degrees must therefore be seen not only as a necessary but also a minimum global climate target.\u201d<\/p>\n

Investigating the implications of global risks for national policy-making<\/strong><\/p>\n

PIK maintains an extensive collaboration with the Stockholm Resilience Centre on the topic of planetary boundaries. Under the leadership of Wolfgang Lucht, Co-Chair of PIK\u2019s department of Earth System Analysis, PIK is a founding member of the Planetary Boundaries Research Network (PB.net<\/a>) to coordinate this science. PIK researchers led by Wolfgang Lucht have also recently launched a project funded by the German Environmental Agency (Umweltbundesamt) to specifically investigate the implications of planetary boundaries for national policy making.
\nSteffen, W., Richardson, K., Rockstr\u00f6m, J., Cornell, S., Fetzer, I., Bennett, E.M., Biggs, R., Carpenter, S.R., de Vries, W., de Wit, C.A., Folke, C., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Mace, G.M., Persson, L.M., Ramanathan, V., Reyers, B., S\u00f6rlin, S. (2015): Planetary Boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science<\/em> (Express, online) [DOI:10.1126\/science.1259855]Article:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Weblink to the article:<\/strong><\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/content\/early\/2015\/01\/14\/science.1259855.abstract<\/a><\/p>\n

Related weblinks:
\n<\/strong>www.pb-net.org
\n<\/a>www.stockholmresilience.su.se
\n<\/a>www.pik-potsdam.de\/research\/earth-system-analysis\/projects\/flagships\/open<\/a><\/p>\n

For further information please contact:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jonas Viering
\nCommunications
\nPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research<\/p>\n

press@pik-potsdam.de
\n<\/a>Tel.: +49 (0)331 288 2507
\nFredrick Moberg
\nCommunications
\nStockholm Resilience Centre<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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