Press release by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research\u00a0<\/i><\/p>\n
05\/30\/2013<\/p>\n
Identifying hotspots: Climate Impacts World Conference<\/b><\/p>\n
Researchers identified a number of hotspots both of global climate change impacts and the science that deals with them. New analyses presented at the Impacts World 2013 Conference this week in Potsdam, Germany, revealed that the Amazon region, east Africa and the Mediterranean will experience serious change if greenhouse-gas emissions continue unabated. More than 300 scientists and stakeholders from 40 countries spent four days discussing the path forward for research on the impacts of climate change \u2013 one key outcome is the joining of forces between impacts researchers with economists to assess possible future loss and damage.<\/b><\/p>\n
\u201cSome of the most excellent brains of climate impacts research from all disciplines came together for the first time to combine their skills,\u201d said co-organizer Hermann Lotze-Campen of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research. \u201cWe\u2019re overwhelmed by their dedication to draft a joint research agenda that focuses on the most burning issues of climate impacts.\u201d The assembled scientists agreed on a plan to move from the research of multiple biophysical impacts, affecting natural resources, to economic and social impacts on states and eventually businesses and communities.<\/p>\n
At the same time, it was agreed to take concrete steps to explore synergies between regional and global climate impact modelling. \u201cThis will help to substantially increase the robustness of these computer simulations,\u201d Lotze-Campen said. \u201cWe know that climate change is happening, that it\u2019s largely man-made, and that its negative effects outweigh the positive ones \u2013 but now we must, and can, enhance the precision of large-scale impact assessments. This will contribute to improved risk management strategies at various levels.\u201d<\/p>\n
The results of the Intersectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) are an example of the benefits of this new direction. In an unprecedented community effort, more than 30 modelling groups worldwide across four sectors \u2013 agriculture, water cycle, health, and ecosystems \u2013 investigated where climate change impacts will hit hardest. \u201cThis provides extremely valuable information for climate change mitigation and adaptation,\u201d Lotze-Campen pointed out. \u201cWith this joint effort, scientists can help decision-makers to tackle these challenges.\u201d<\/p>\n
The conference aimed at painting the big picture of climate impacts, revealing important contours. \u201cEven though we\u2019re very clear about the research gaps that still need to be bridged, it became obvious at the conference that \u2018wait-and-see\u2019 is no option for dealing with the effects of climate change,\u201d Lotze-Campen added. \u201cThe emerging picture confirms for various sectors that global warming beyond 2 degrees Celsius should be avoided to prevent large-scale damages, and the increasing severity of damage beyond this threshold.\u201d<\/p>\n
Martin Parry, Imperial College London \/ The Centre for Environmental Policy:<\/b> \u201cFindings of the Intersectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project reported at this conference demonstrate that the project is a \u2018shot in the arm\u2019 for impacts research \u2013 in other words that it has injected some fresh pace into our research efforts.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u00a0Liyong Xi, Shenyang Agricultural University, China:<\/b> \u201cScientists should not shy away from saying very clearly what the impacts of climate change are likely to be, and what adaptation could look like \u2013 as many speakers put forward that this is what policy-makers keep asking us. So we need to quantify impacts, and put numbers to adaptation measures. This conference aimed to and achieved more progress in doing this. Yet we must \u2013 and will \u2013 continue this crucial effort on global scale. One important issue is agriculture, which is very sensitive to climate change. This affects global food security, of course for developing countries with a large population in particular. So it turns out we must pay more attention to climate change impacts on farmers worldwide.\u201d<\/p>\n
Filipe Duarte Santos, University of Lisbon, Portugal:<\/b> \u201cThe Impacts World 2013 Conference was a very successful opportunity to present and discuss the more recent achievements in modeling climate change impacts. We understand better the uncertainties involved, but we still have a long way to go because of the complexity of human and natural systems. Nevertheless, we should engage in planned adaptation. I suggest a greater effort on the study of impacts on health, in particular with regards to vector borne diseases transmitted by mosquitoes and other animals that due to the changing climate spread to regions where they did not exist before.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u00a0For further information please contact:<\/b><\/p>\n
PIK press office<\/p>\n
Phone: +49 331 288 25 07<\/p>\n
E-Mail: press@pik-potsdam.de<\/a><\/p>\n